What can we conclude from the election of Democrats to the House while Republican’s increased their majority in the Senate? The simple answer is that nothing will get done in the next two year. I’ve long held that a congressional fix for healthcare is an unlikely outcome; however, I now believe that there are some interesting things that can happen. The focus should be on the (progessive/trifecta blue) states.
#1) Create durable protections under law for pre-existing conditions
IF the Democrats are clever…The Democrats should take Republican claims of support for pre-existing conditions seriously. Even Ted Cruz supported pre-existing conditions down the stretch. Democrats should put pressure on Reps by passing legislation in the House carving out and creating a long-term, legal protection for pre-existing conditions. Even though this is technically unnecessary, given the prominence of pre-existing conditions in ACA, it’s possible that the Republicans may suddenly ‘forget’ their support for this policy. It is unlikely to pass in the Senate – but that’s not the point. Election stump talk is cheap, legislation is more expensive.
Allowing Republicans to u-turn on pre-existing conditions and not holding their feet to the fire would be a mistake. (but count on Democrats to miss a good opportunity whenever they can)
#2) Stop focusing on prescription drugs – start focusing on the medical benefit
Last night Nancy Pelosi gave a truly cringeworthy speech that touched on the need to reduce the cost of prescription drugs as a primary way to make healthcare affordable. As I’ve written many times, we could eliminate our spending on drugs, crippling both the branded and generic drug manufacturers at the expense of thousands of jobs, and ONLY reduce healthcare spending by >10%.
In politics cutting healthcare spending means ‘cutting drug spending’ because drug out-of-pocket costs are highly visible to consumers. But until politicians see the forest (medical benefits) for the trees (drug spending) we aren’t going to see healthcare costs come down. Having a single payer system isn’t going to solve this problem, despite what progressives wish to be true.
#3) The cauldron of innovation is now the States
One lightly reported change is the democratic pickup of 5 ‘trifectas’. With the slow/no rate of healthcare change at the National level, these states are the most likely to try something creative. Rumors abound that California will resurface it’s $400B single payer legislation that went nowhere in 2017. Without the balance of a meaningful opposition party, Democrats in these 13 states will want to demonstrate to their constituents that they can deliver on healthcare. IF they take a serious look at BOTH pharmacy and medical benefits (see #2!) it will be interesting to follow the outcome. Reducing spend by eliminating overbilling, unnecessary care, prioritizing less expensive treatments, etc. sounds much easier than it is. However, I will applaud their efforts and we should all watch with open-minded interest. After all, almost every other advanced economy has managed to provide (good/better) healthcare at lower costs.
Chiral Logic 